Stop guessing tomorrow's bake before the racks fill up.
DoughOps gives owners and managers a daily production plan built to reduce overproduction, protect sell-through, and keep labor aligned by combining historical sales, weather, holidays, local demand shifts, and actual production outcomes.
- Review predicted demand by product, daypart, and location.
- See why a number moved with weather, holiday, and event context.
- Approve the plan, adjust for operator judgment, and track actuals back into the model.
What this replaces in a bakery
Guesswork at close
Stop rebuilding tomorrow's plan from memory, vibes, and partial notes after a long day. DoughOps gives you a ready-to-review plan built from real data before you even think about it.
Static par sheets
Adjust quantities using actual demand signals instead of one-size-fits-all baselines that miss weather and event swings. Every day gets its own recommendation based on what is actually happening.
Blind overproduction
Catch recurring overages before they harden into weekly waste, margin loss, and stale-case habits. The engine tracks your waste history and automatically pulls back when a product consistently overproduces.
An AI prediction engine built for bakery demand
Historical sales with weighted averaging
The engine analyzes 12 weeks of sales data for every product, weighting recent weeks more heavily so the model adapts as your product mix and customer base change. Day-of-week patterns are learned per product, so Friday glazed donut demand is separate from Tuesday.
Weather-aware forecasting
14-day weather data from Open-Meteo is built into every prediction. Rain reduces forecasts by 10-20%, snow by 15-35%, and the adjustments are dampened against historical data so the model does not overreact. You see the weather impact explained right next to each number.
Holiday and event detection
Holidays are auto-generated with bakery-specific impacts: National Donut Day gets an 80% boost, Valentine's Day 50%, Easter 40%. Local events from Ticketmaster and SeatGeek are pulled automatically too, with festivals adding 30%, NFL games 25%, and concerts 20%. You can also add manual events for local happenings the APIs miss.
Self-correcting accuracy
The engine runs a feedback loop against its own past predictions. If it consistently over- or under-predicts for a product, it adjusts. Trend analysis catches weekly percentage changes, and a waste threshold automatically pulls back production when waste exceeds 25%. The model gets better the longer you use it.
Daily and weekly planning workflows
Daily production view
Every morning, your team sees predicted quantities by product with transparent reasoning: "72 glazed (historical 65 + Valentine's Day +50% - rain forecast -10%)." Managers review, adjust for shop knowledge, and approve the plan. Batch numbers get assigned automatically. Actual production is tracked back against the plan so accuracy improves over time.
Weekly planning with weather overlay
See the full week ahead with weather conditions overlaid on each day. Spot the rainy Wednesday that should produce less, or the sunny Saturday with a local festival that needs extra stock. Plan staffing and ingredient orders around the week, not just tomorrow.
Quick Boost for mid-day production
Selling faster than expected? Bakers can tap amber boost buttons to add +6, +12, +24, or a custom quantity to any approved plan without going through full re-approval. Managers can undo boosts if needed. Boost quantities are tracked separately so your accuracy metrics stay clean.
Rounding to real batch sizes
Bakeries do not make 37 donuts. DoughOps rounds predictions to your actual production units: half dozens, dozens, or pan sizes. An overage percentage acts as a safety buffer so you are not caught short on a busy morning. The final number on the plan is one your team can actually execute.
Every order source feeds into one plan
Pre-orders from Square and Clover
Customer pre-orders placed through your POS flow directly into the production plan. When someone pre-orders an Assorted Dozen, DoughOps expands the bundle across eligible products using a day-seeded distribution, so your production team sees actual per-product quantities, not just "2 assorted dozens."
B2B wholesale orders included
Standing orders and one-off wholesale orders from your B2B accounts are automatically added to the daily plan. Your production team never has to ask "did anyone check the wholesale orders?" because those quantities are already on the board. Business plan
Multi-location, per-location plans
Each location gets its own production plan with its own predictions, weather data, and event impacts. A downtown shop near a stadium sees different demand than your suburban location. Switch between locations to review and approve plans independently. Pro plan
Manager approval workflow
Plans start as AI recommendations and become final only after a manager reviews and approves. Batch numbers are assigned on approval. The separation between prediction and commitment gives your team confidence that nothing goes to the fryer without a human sign-off.
AI that learns your baselines over time
Baseline recommendations
Every week, DoughOps analyzes 12 weeks of sales data and recommends baseline changes when the shift is greater than 10% and confidence exceeds 75%. You see the recommendation on your dashboard with the data behind it. Apply it with one click, dismiss it with a reason, or let it sit until you are ready.
Optional auto-learning mode
For shops that trust the data, opt into auto-learning and DoughOps will apply high-confidence baseline adjustments automatically each week. You control the guardrails: minimum data points (default 30), minimum confidence (default 85%), and maximum change per cycle (default 25%). Every change is logged in a full audit trail.
Built for the way bakeries actually operate
Bakery-specific intelligence
Planning needs to account for early-morning demand, same-day sell-through, weather sensitivity, and production constraints like fryer capacity and proofer timing. DoughOps is structured around that reality instead of generic bakery templates. The prediction engine understands that a rainy Tuesday and a sunny Super Bowl Sunday are fundamentally different production days.
Managers stay in control
The AI is there to inform decisions, not hide them. Operators can inspect the reasoning behind every number, adjust for shop knowledge the model cannot see, and track actuals back into the model. The result is a planning system that respects operator expertise while eliminating the guesswork.
Included with every DoughOps plan
DoughOps plan ($49/mo)
Full AI production planning with weather, holidays, events, trend analysis, waste adjustment, Quick Boost, manager approval, baseline learning, and batch rounding. Single location.
Pro plan ($99/mo)
Everything in DoughOps plus crew station assignments integrated into the production view, Square crew shift sync, and multi-location support (+$35/mo per location).
Business plan ($199/mo)
Everything in Pro plus B2B wholesale orders feeding into production plans, 2 locations included, and dedicated support for high-volume operations.
Pair planning with the rest of the operating loop
Production planning works best when it connects to waste review, POS data, and daily accountability.
The launch difference
Before DoughOps
- Sales, production, ordering, and team follow-through live in separate tools.
- Managers make daily calls from memory, spreadsheets, and partial POS exports.
- Customer demand enters the bakery without a clean operational handoff.
With DoughOps
- Production plans, branded ordering, POS context, and team routines stay connected.
- Owners can see what sold, what was made, what was wasted, and what is next.
- Every customer workflow points back to clearer production and margin control.
Launch-ready next step
See how this workflow fits into the full bakery operating system.
DoughOps connects this workflow to production planning, branded ordering, POS data, customer programs, inventory, wholesale, and team execution so improvements do not stay isolated.